Amber Rudd to lose her seat? Green Party to make gains?: Election Predictions

With a few days to go until the snap election called by Theresa May in mid-April, the landscape voters face on the 8th of May seems clear. Policies have been laid out, campaigns run, and revelations made - which leaves us with all of the information we need to make predictions for the election. Of course, predictions are wrong at every election, but these 6 below could well take place come election day, with some more likely than others.

Confident Predictions:

1. Theresa May will see a reduced majority in her seat.

Since her entry into Number 10, Theresa May decided to push through the UK's exit from the European Union, despite her support of the Remain campaign. This switch on her Brexit allegiances has led to uproar from the 48% of people nationwide who voted to remain. In fact, May's home constituency of Maidenhead voted to remain, by just under 54%. The way May has failed to reflect her constituency fairly since becoming PM could sway Remain Tories in the area to other parties, such as the pro-EU Lib Dems - reducing the comfortable majority May currently holds.

2. The Scottish Conservatives will make considerable gains.

Ruth Davidson became the leader of the Scottish Conservatives shortly after the 2011 Scottish election, where the party only won 15 seats in Holyrood and saw a net loss of over 2% of voters from 2007. In the 5 years since, Davidson has led the party to gains of nearly 10% in Scotland, jumping Labour to become the second party, and gaining 16 more seats in Holyrood. With polling up to 30%, expect the party to make gains in seats like Berwickshire, or Dumfries and Galloway - where SNP majorities are at an easy swing.

3. The Liberal Democrats will regain seats in the south-west but disappoint elsewhere.

Going into the 2015 election, the south-west of England was the one true Lib Dem stronghold, with 16 seats across Somerset, Devon and Cornwall. In that election, they lost every single seat in the region. Since then, Tim Farron has been attempting to rebuild the party, with a new manifesto, and attempts to distance themselves from the Liberal Democrats of the coalition. Simply put, it's had minimal effect. At the point of Tim Farron's election, the Lib Dems were polling between 7-10%. They now poll around 8-11%, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. In all likelihood, the party will only see gains in the most marginal seats they lost, and places such as Cambridge, Bermondsey and Burnley are unlikely to be gained from Labour - due to the volatile fight between Corbyn and May. This leaves seats such as Thornbury, St Ives and Torbay within a 3-5% swing for Farron, and some of the only realistic targets for a party pushed out by voters who simply cannot stand one of the main two candidates, leading them to vote for the other, not a Liberal Democrat.

Bold Predictions:

1. The Labour Party will gain over 20 seats this election.

To put it lightly, Jeremy Corbyn is not the most universally liked leader of the past 20 years. Since day one, the more established post-Blair Labour politicians disapproved of his election, and that rubbed off on the electorate. But, given the chance to campaign in this election, opinion has shifted on Corbyn and his party. If polls are to be trusted after 2015, the Labour vote share has gone from the mid-20s to high-30s since the campaign started, and Corbyn's approval has gone from 15% to within the 30% too. While Corbyn hasn't gained anywhere near enough to challenge the Tories, he is consistently up on the 2015 vote share, which could easily reflect gains in the 32 seats where they only need a 4% swing on the Conservatives

2. Amber Rudd will lose her Hastings and Rye seat.

In general terms, Amber Rudd's 9.4% majority would be more than comfortable for a member of the cabinet. However, it remains one of the smallest majorities in the May government. While Rudd was by no means a poor Home Secretary, she was unremarkable in the months since being given the role. As a result, the tragic events of the past month may have an effect on how the electorate view her job as Home Secretary, and how the people of Hastings vote. Whether this type of voting is completely justifiable is another subject, but Rudd also had a poor showing subbing for May at the BBC debate and has been involved in minor controversy at local hustings, when seen handing a note to the host during a candidates speech, which led to the host interrupting. A poor campaign could be costly for Rudd, as it was for Ed Balls in 2015.

3. Molly-Scott Cato of the Greens will win Bristol West.

The Green Party largely remain a small force in UK politics, but since the resignation of Douglas Carswell from the UKIP whip earlier this year, they return to being the only minor party to hold a seat in England. Caroline Lucas has, in fact, turned Brighton Pavilion into a safe seat, with a comfortable majority, but the party remains far from winning other seats across the country. In fact, only Bristol West needs a single digit swing from the 2015 result, needing just under 4.5% gains on Thangam Debbonaire's seat. With Molly Scott-Cato, one of the party's serving MEPs, as the candidate, the party have poured large resources into making the seat only their 3rd representation in either house, alongside Lucas and Baroness Jones. This seat may be a good bet for a shock flip on election day.